It’s hard to do that, though, when the surveys get hacked, which I confirmed while conducting a poll on Saturday’s presidential primary.
Very, very many of the online responses came from Ron Paul supporters who don’t live in the state, and a link to the survey was found on a Reddit.com page dedicated to fans of the Texas congressman. That left me short of a minimum needed to produce an acceptable confidence level and margin of error.
I still compiled some findings from that survey, however, and have made my own predictions based on a compilation of its valid responses and other surveys. Remember these are not scientific findings, however.
My final predictions for Saturday’s primary election are:
About 1.5 to two percent from that remaining three, though, will go to Stephen Colbert, even if indirectly.
The Charleston-native television star’s been campaigning for about a week, using the name of former candidate Herman Cain. The two even held a rally Friday afternoon at the College of Charleston.
Colbert/Cain will take about 8,000. His count will include votes from some who otherwise would not have participated in the election, and who only came out in response to his sarcastic ads. The rest of his/their votes, though, will be from Republicans who find they have no viable candidate on the ballot.
Colbert’s Super PAC produced four video advertisements, two of which directly ask voters to select Cain. Another asks anyone but Mitt Romney be supported.
Gingrich’s very recent return to the top in favor from South Carolina Republicans brings an interesting twist to the race, and provides an additional stifle to Mitt Romney’s campaign, too.
Supporting my predictions for a Gingrich victory are the results of four other surveys conducted in the last three days. In an average of those polls of South Carolina voters, the former Speaker of the House leads Romney 32.4 to 30.4 percent.
The results of the Iowa caucus, the very first conducted, were recently changed, too. Romney’s slight victory over Rick Santorum by a count of eight votes was reversed yesterday. Santorum officially won by 32 votes, Iowa election officials stated yesterday.
Here are other statements and projections I feel comfortable to issue:
- Slightly over 90 percent of very likely voters are committed; almost six percent said they could still change their minds, and only four percent were still undecided.
- Total turnout for the January 21 contest should be near 490,000, they predict – almost 10 percent higher than turnout for the GOP presidential primary race in 2008. This notable increase is the result of greater interest from Tea Party supporters, who formerly skipped many primaries, and Ron Paul supporters, many of whom are normally irregular in election participation and/or who are recent voter registrants.
- About 55 percent of Saturday’s voters will be male – a notable increase from 2008 when only 50.5 percent of the participants in the state’s Republican presidential primary were men. That percentage is dependent on how many men show up to vote; men polled were less committed to voting that were female voters. These male voters are also more likely to be party faithful and vote for any Republican candidate in a General Election than female voters are.
- Approximately one-quarter of the voters definite to participate in the Jan. 21 primary self-identify as “evangelist,” inferring that faith and relevant values would influence their candidate selection. This minimum anticipated presence was part of the influence behind my credit of higher vote percentage to Santorum than other poll predict. The very recent correction of Iowa caucus results, which now say he defeated Romney, will also aid Santorum in the South Carolina primary, I believe.