And the results? Well, I was … (more or less) dead on. I predicted Mitt Romney to take the lead with 24 percent.
And who won, and with what percentage?
That’s right – It was Mitt, who took almost a quarter of the vote, just six-tenths more than I predicted.
I also defied the recent national polls that said Ron Paul would be first or second, and predicted the Texas congressman to take third. And that’s exactly where he finished, right behind the guy I predicted would be second, Rick Santorum.
Here’s a direct comparison of my predictions to the actual results:
And here are the results of my own online poll, which asked respondents to select who’d win Iowa’s caucus:
The only actual mistake I made was on the Perry/Bachmann “Battle for Last Place,” mixing them up. (And, yes – I didn’t include Jon Huntsman, who took only 0.6 percent last night, but no other poll was including him in their results, either.)
So, will local media be calling on moi to advise them on our upcoming South Carolina poll? I mean, I should be, like, an authority on elections by now, right?
Other notes on the GOP presidential primary:
- Last night, Bachmann at first said she would remain in the race; this morning, however, her campaign manager said she’s dropping out.
- Gary Johnson, another GOP candidate with Libertarian slant and who’d previously announced he’d be officially running on the Libertarian Party slate, formally announced his endorsement of Ron Paul in this Iowa race. That doesn’t mean he’s dropping out of the race altogether, though. He’ll stay in as a Libertarian, and only endorsed Paul because Johnson himself wasn’t in last night’s Republican primary race.
- Rick Perry said he’ll be returning to his home state of Texas to debate the future of his campaign.